Mr. Speaker, in response to part (a) of the question, the disruptions assessed in the report were derived from a literature review, expert interviews with individuals, conversations with policy makers within the Government of Canada, workshops with foresight practitioners, as well as Policy Horizons Canada’s ongoing foresight work aimed at analyzing what is changing in our society, what is driving that change, and what new realities could emerge.

To assess the disruptions, Policy Horizons gathered and analyzed input from around 500 stakeholders, colleagues, and foresight experts across the Government of Canada and beyond who responded to the survey. Participants did not represent an organization; they voluntarily responded to a survey as individuals.

The individuals were selected by Policy Horizons Canada for their expertise in one or several domains covered by the disruptions. Policy Horizons Canada composed the survey participant list to include a variety of background and perspectives. All participants are part of Policy Horizons Canada’s larger expert network. About 53% of the survey respondents, or 258 people, were from the Government of Canada, and 47%, or 233 people,) were from outside of the Government of Canada. The names of participants were not collected as part of the survey.

In response to part (b) of the question, no one was paid to participate in any part of the research or survey. Individuals responded on a volunteer basis.

As for part (c) of the question,the disruptions assessed in the report were derived from a literature review, expert interviews with individuals, conversations with policy makers within the Government of Canada, workshops with foresight practitioners, as well as Policy Horizons Canada’s (Policy Horizons) ongoing foresight work aimed at analyzing what is changing in our society, what is driving that change, and what new realities could emerge.

As for part (d) of the question, the following questions were asked in the survey: “Assess each of the following disruptions (35 in total) based on likelihood and impact—how likely it is to occur and how much impact it could have, if it were to occur.

Select what you think the likelihood and impact of the disruption would be on a scale of 1-5 (1 being low, 5 being high).”

“Think of each disruption as a future where a circumstance reaches a critical point and becomes the new normal, or a significant event happens.

Select the option that indicates when you think each disruption could occur, in years. Select 10 if you think the disruption could occur in 10 or more years.”

“Assess each of the following seven disruptions based on interconnections—if one disruption were to occur, which related disruptions would be more likely to occur.

Select two related disruptions for each disruption.”

As for part (e) of the question, Policy Horizons Canada sent the survey to approximately 2000 people within their expert network. Nearly 500, namely, 491, people responded. As participation was voluntary, reasons why individuals chose not to participate was not provided.

Part (f) of the question touched on the total cost to research, prepare, and publish the report. Internal resources provided: the salary for the project team, namely, two EC-06, one EC-04, for approximately 11 months. This includes the development of the report as well as the initial dissemination across the Government of Canada, including workshops, presentations and Futures Week sessions; the salary for communications work, namely, one IS-05, one IS-04, for approximately one week. In addition, executives and staff of Policy Horizons provided input and review.

External resources included the software license to undertake the survey, a cost of $2,192.00; and graphic design work and report layout, a cost of $8,463.70.

With regard to part (g) of the question, as the report was published on May 7, 2024, a lessons-learned exercise has not been conducted at this time.

Lastly, with regard to part (h) of the question, Policy Horizons Canada, as the Government of Canada’s centre of excellence in foresight, intends to continue its Disruptions on the horizon work. The content and details regarding future reports have not been determined at this time.

Sameer Zuberi

$556,816.00